EDITORIAL: The Marketing's Been Fun, But Just How Good Can We Expect DEADPOOL To Be?
Will Deadpool be just another fant4stic flop from Fox, or does the Merc-with-a-Mouth have more to offer than a few R-rated gags and violent decapitations? Hit the jump to read my take!
By Minty -
Feb 03, 2016 01:02 PM EST
Deadpool hits theatres next week! It’s hard to believe we’ve even reached this point. For a while, this movie looked like little more than a fanboy’s fantasy. It’s been almost sixteen years since the idea was first broached at Marvel, and six years since Rhett Reese & Paul Wernick completed their first draft of the script. After several years of speculation, recruitment, denials and development hell, a single piece of test footage mysteriously found its way online and… well, you know the rest of the story.
As troubled as Deadpool’s journey to the big screen was, that’s been totally overshadowed by the film’s phenomenal promotion. From innuendo-filled testicular cancer PSAs to egregious click-baiting, 20th Century Fox have put together one of the most creative and humorous marketing campaigns in history. In truth, Fox & star Ryan Reynolds have been building momentum ever since that brilliant R-rated April fools reveal, but over the last few months they’ve really taken things to a whole new level.
Deadpool (potentially) represents the industry’s first true trans-media marketing success. It seems like every demographic has been catered to, across every platform available – whether that be via tongue-in-cheek TV-spots, unapologetically crude posters, emoji-covered billboards or, of course, social media. Fan anticipation has soared through the roof, and the general response from a surprise early screening last week indicates audiences have plenty of cause to be excited.
All of a sudden, Deadpool’s begun to look less like a cult hit and more like a blockbuster smash-in-the-making. But just how successful can this movie really be? From a financial point of a view, it still has a fair few obstacles in its way. A creative marketing campaign may not necessarily lead to bonafied results at the box office, and, of course, a key talking point has been the studio’s decision to forgo the PG-13 crowd in order to stay true to the character’s R-rated source material.
Was this decision the right one to make with regards to the character? Absolutely, but that doesn’t make it more profitable. Perhaps more alarming (or entertaining – depending on how you look at it) is the recent news that the movie has been banned in China, due to its “violence, nudity and graphic language”. The adolescent in me is still chuckling with glee at that prospect, but that doesn’t change the fact that Deadpool wont be able to open in the 2nd largest market in the world.
Reynolds has done his best to laugh off this blow, but you can’t help but think the bigwigs at Fox were left a little nervous by it. China’s importance has skyrocketed over the last few years, and Chinese audiences have even managed to save a few blockbusters from financial disaster (I’m looking at you Pacific Rim, Terminator Genisys…). If, for some reason, North American audiences don’t take to the Merc-with-a-Mouth, then the studio won’t have this safety net either.
The very reason why Reynolds and the filmmakers had to put up such a huge fight for Deadpool to be rated R in the first place is because the track record for adult superhero affairs hasn’t been that stellar in the past. We’ve been down this road before. Watchmen barely made its $130 million dollar budget back in 2009, and while Matthew Vaughn’s Kick-Ass proved to be more successful, it did so on a much smaller $30 million kitty. Thankfully, Deadpool’s budget appears to be more along those lines (it’s rumored to be in the $50-75 million region – although that marketing campaign will not have come cheap). Ultimately, it looks like positive early word-of-mouth will be this film’s greatest weapon, and should be enough get it into the black even if it does disappoint critically.
Which brings us to the other big question, just how good can this movie be? While commercial success isn’t always tethered to quality (hello Transformers), positive word of mouth has to come from somewhere – especially for R-rated affairs. One possible analogy for Deadpool is The Hangover. The first movie, while totally undermined by its lackluster sequels, is still one of the funniest, most original comedies Hollywood has churned out in years – and American audiences rewarded that fact by helping it become the 3rd highest grossing R-rated flick of all-time.
If Deadpool can attract the same sort of crowd as the first Hangover movie, then a worldwide gross of $400, even $500 million might not sound as far-fetched as many industry experts may have once believed. And if the general public’s response to the marketing campaign has proven anything, it’s that this movie is incredibly unique in its ability to attract all kinds of moviegoers – from raunchy comedy lovers to superhero fanatics. It just needs to be a good film.
And who says it won’t be? Despite more than a few questionable career choices (Green Lantern, Self/less, R.I.P.D.…) Ryan Reynolds is still widely perceived to be a talented actor, with a real gift for comedy. He proved that last year with a severely underrated turn in Marjane Satrapi’s warped horror/comedy The Voices, before demonstrating some serious dramatic chops and holding his own alongside a brilliant Ben Mendelsohn in Mississippi Grind. He even shone in his bit-part in X-Men Origins (before his character was inexplicably butchered). Deadpool has always been Reynolds’ passion project, so it’s hard to imagine he’s given any less than 120% effort on this – and that’s encouraging.
The rest of the cast is… less stellar, but that’s largely because they’re all relatively unknown. T. J. Miller’s a funny guy (he’s shown that in the trailer alone) but he’s also earned critical acclaim from his work on Silicon Valley. Morena Baccarin has delivered strong turns on Homeland & Firefly in the past, while Brianna Hildebrand could be a real find as Negasonic Teenage Warhead. However, the key players are off-camera. Rhett Reese & Paul Wernick earned a plenty of fans after their first draft of the movie leaked online - having already impressed in the past with Zombieland. Elsewhere, Director and VFX artist Tim Miller may be untested as far as feature films go, but take a look at his work on The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo’s opening sequence before you write him off too quickly.
There’s really no telling how great Deadpool is until the first wave of reviews come out, and even then, the general audience may feel very differently to critics. However, providing there is some semblance of story and structure underneath all of the jokes, and the movie’s not entirely set on that one bridge, then there’s a very strong chance it could end up emulating last year’s Kingsman – both critically and commercially. A $400 million return would all but guarantee a Deadpool 2.
Hell, if things really go their way, it could even exceed that target. At this point, almost anything seems possible. The fact that folks at Fox have been praising it non-stop admittedly means diddly-squat, but there is something different about this one. The company has shown a sense of faith in this movie that was absent throughout all of Fant4stic’s doomed production. Deadpool appears to have come along at the right time for everyone: a studio in need of redemption, a star long overdue his ‘big break’ and an audience hungry for more graphic nudity, violent decapitation and fourth-wall breaking in their superhero films. It’s a win-win scenario for everybody!
Bryan Singer recently opened up about how difficult he felt replacing Hugh Jackman as Wolverine would be. The Aussie has long been the face of Fox’s X-Men franchise, but he’ll hang up his claws after Wolverine III. While the likes of Singer & Simon Kinberg stress over Hugh’s potential successor, the success of Deadpool could provide them with another option that nobody saw coming – the Merc-with-a-Mouth himself! Of course, figuring out how to blend his violent, satire-driven, foul-mouthed persona with the family-friendly mutant crowd is a whole other challenge entirely…
How well do you think Deadpool is going to do? Will it be a resounding success – and if so, could Wade Wilson end up headlining Fox’s fledgling cinematic universe? As always, I hope you enjoyed the read, and be sure to leave your thoughts and predictions in the comments below!
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