First off, let me start by answering the question that is on the top of everyone's mind. Just who the hell is Alexander Pierce? The answer to this question will be the glue that holds all of my theories together. Indeed, this question keeps me up at night, and like most of you, I believe there is a lot more to this character than what we're being led on. This has been all but confirmed by the accidental slip that Robert Redford let loose during an interview in which he mistakenly revealed that he was one of the film's antagonists. Could he be just a corrupted SHIELD agent? Possibly, but it's doubtful that Marvel would create a John Doe out of him, especially given the plethora of villains Marvel has to choose from and the acting caliber of the man who's playing him. Some have suggested that he's actually the rogue Russian general, Alexander Lukin. A more likely theory, but this raises some eyebrows. First off, Redford looks NOTHING like the Lukin that was featured in the comics. And secondly, the announcement that Baron von Strucker was cast in Avengers: Age of Ultron seemingly confirms that HYDRA will have to resurface in The Winter Soldier. So this scraps the possibility of Alexander Pierce actually being Lukin. However, as I will later mention, I believe that Lukin will be featured in the film, but in a much smaller capacity than in the comics. So who could Redford possibly be? There's only one likely scenario.
Redford is actually the Red Skull.
Now wait just a darn minute! Are you telling me that a man in his late seventies is going put on all that makeup and prosthetic? You're crazy! Well no.... Before I go further allow me to offer my ideas on how I propose the movie will end.
Bucky has finally had his mind freed from HYDRA's control. He'll be on the run from authorities much like in the ending of the original story. He remembers everything, from his time as Cap's sidekick, to an assassin and terrorist who's killed hundreds of innocent lives. Faced with this hardship, he takes to hiding in the shadows and trying to undo the horror that's been committed.
Freeing Bucky will be our heroes' only triumph. The villains however will succeed in completely destroying SHIELD. With Fury dead, the Helicarriers destroyed, and hundreds if not thousands of SHIELD agents compromised, SHIELD remains only a shadow of its former self, incapable of successfully defending Earth from foreign and domestic threats. The responsibility placed on the Avengers will never be higher, and it will be up to them to take on the newly resurfaced HYDRA.
The film will end on a high-note, and will expose the true nature of Redford's character. Days after Bucky's disappearance, Cap will be called in to examine a body that they've discovered. The body of SHIELD agent Alexander Pierce, frozen in a refrigerated container. Authorities suspect that Pierce may have been assassinated by a much higher figure within HYDRA, but Cap's expression suggests that he knows what's actually going on.
Cut to Redford's character taking an elevator shaft to an underground HYDRA facility. As the doors open, we're blinded with hundreds of computer panels surrounding a circular room, and flags with the HYDRA emblem adorn every square foot of space. The room is crowded with HYDRA agents, many of whom stand at attention for their leader. As he walks, he places a piece of material on a mantle. It looks like a mask, with three empty holes where the eyes and mouth should be. It's the expressionless face of Alexander Pierce. As the HYDRA leader on his throne, we get a brief glimpse of the back of his head which shines bright red before going to the credits.
Surely this cliffhanger ending will leave audiences clamoring for days if not weeks! And this answers the question that people asked about a 77 year old man donning so much prosthetic. He won't need to. His entire onscreen presence will be as the Red Skull's disguise, and not the Red Skull himself. This possibility leaves it open for Hugo Weaving to return in a much anticipated third film.
Of course, the return of the Red Skull is only one of the things I'm looking forward to in The Winter Soldier.
Judging from the trailers, it appears that the film will hold on to some complex themes, not unlike Iron Man 3 and Shane Black's commentary about the War on Terror. I believe this film will make bold statements amount America's sacrifice of freedom for security. This greatly excites me, as I love seeing a profound intelligence get featured within comic book movies. It's a message that won't go unheard in today's time. "This isn't freedom. This is fear." That resonates strongly with American audiences.
One of the small things that I've noticed from the trailers the fact that Bucky's arm still has the Red Star on it. This strongly indicates that the Soviets will still have a hand in creating Bucky. It is here that I'm certain we will see mention of Alexander Lukin and the Kronos Corporation. Somewhere down the line though, HYDRA and the Red Skull will come to influence Lukin and his army of rogue Soviets. (a plot point not far off from the comics, where the Red Skull was actually inside his mind and influencing his decisions.) I actually think that we saw a small glimpse of Alexander Lukin in the trailer.
Some of the other story elements I expect to look out for will be the reintroduction of the Tesseract a.k.a. the Cosmic Cube. I know, I know... after two films where the cube was featured, I'm sure people are less than excited to see it play the MacGuffin yet again in a Marvel movie. However, I feel that excluding the Tesseract will be a missed opportunity for Marvel Studios, seeing as how the Cosmic Cube seems to be the Skull's signature item of power. But how do you explain the Tesseract's arrival if it's on Asgard?
Simple. This Tesseract is a brand new cube, hand-crafted by the Red Skull and some of his undercover agents using the research and data that they mined from it during SHIELD's possession. You will recall from the comics that each civilization possesses its own version of the cosmic cube, so this would actually make the cube far more comic-accurate. All of a sudden, SHIELD's experiments with the Tesseract in the Avengers make a lot more sense beyond just "a defense measure against aliens". As we can see from this twist, the Red Skull has suddenly become one of the master manipulators for the events that happened during the Avengers. A role I consider fitting for the fascist Nazi villain. I expect to see this version of the cube to be a lot more powerful than what we saw in the Avengers. I want it to actually alter reality to match the wish of whoever holds the cube (but I don't expect to see something that drastic in this movie.) At this point, I am not sure if the cube should be used by the Skull in small measures, manipulating thoughts and actions of some of the key characters, or if the cube should be a shard of it's full potential, only to be carried onto the third film.
What do I expect to see out of the third installment? I hope to see something familiar with what comes next in the Ed Brubaker run. I want to see Cap continue his search for Bucky A.K.A The Winter Soldier. At the same time, we're also going to face the rising threat of HYDRA and the Red Skull. I want to see the Skull attempt to infiltrate the American political system with a senator of his choosing. (Gary Shandling anyone?) If the cube carries over into the third movie, I want to see the Red Skull attempting to charge it up through means of mass murder and destruction. I want to see Cap fighting terrorist plots by HYDRA as well as the rising Sleeper Robots that have had much notoriety in the comics and cartoons. And in the final showdown, we'll finally see Cap and Bucky team-up to take down the Red Skull once and for all.
These are just my two cents. However, I think that a lot of what I've suggested makes a ton of sense given the direction that the MCU seems to be going. Please leave your thoughts in the comments below!