Is it a stretch to say we’re in the golden age of comic book movies? Just how lucky are we as fans to be here, now, and not thirty years ago when most of today’s films would be impossible to produce?
Just as impossible are the numbers these films are reaching. Comic book movies have become the lifeblood for some studios as they build their slates around these summer tentpoles. Each year studio execs hope their comic adaptations or sequels strike a cord with audiences and reap huge returns from the box office gods known as Domestic and Foreign.
This year has got to be one of the most anticipated years for comic book movies in a long time. Ah, screw it - Most anticipated ever. So just how much do these films stand to make? What’s the score card going to look like once 2016 comes to a close? Before we get to that…
First and foremost, It’s IMPOSSIBLE to predict how much these movies are going to make.
Unless the consciousness from Future You was sent back in time to Present You, whatever numbers are being thrown out are guesses. And that’s what I’m offering, educated guesses.
For example, I’m not so sure any of the CBMs this year are going to cross $1B. That number is harder to reach than people realize. In the history of CBMs only three franchises have ever done it. Five films in total - Both Avengers, Christopher Nolan’s TDK & TDKR and Iron Man 3. There are too many factors working against making $1B such as competition, scheduling, dark horses and breakout hits. If I had to pick one for 2016, maybe Captain America: Civil War could it. But that’s if I had to pick one.
Okay, so rather than predicting exact numbers I’ll be giving ranges where I feel these movies could fall within. Now let’s look at the 2016 schedule from the beginning of the year to the end, starting with…
DEADPOOL (FEBRUARY 12)
Domestic - $85M - $115M
Worldwide - $250M - $350M
This movie looks F’n insane. Thank goodness Ryan Reynolds stayed behind it. It’s definitely on my list of movies to see. Most likely my first movie of 2016. There have been movies where the lead interacts with the audience before but not like Deadpool. I can’t wait to hear if he has anything to say to the audience during the movie - maybe references to someone leaving the theater to go to the bathroom. Picking on someone who had to sit in the front row because they arrived too late. Who knows.
Deadpool isn’t a widely recognizable character. Chances are fans who do know him are having to explain his concept to friends. What will probably impact the film’s box office more than lack of recognition is its hard R rating. Foul language and ultraviolence haven’t always equaled huge box office success but I’m getting the sense this wasn’t meant to be a WB/DC or Marvel Studios sized blockbuster.
This film was made for Deadpool fans, old and possibly new. I could see an opening weekend in the $40m area but female audiences may have something to say about that. How To Be Single starring Dakota Johnson and Rebel Wilson is scheduled to open the same weekend and that could easily take the top spot. With it being so close to Valentine’s Day, couples could flock to Single or it could be a “girls night out” film or both.
But, like I said, I don’t believe Fox is looking for huge numbers with Deadpool. (No, those asperations come in May). I see it as a love letter from the studio and Reynolds to atone for the travesty that was Weapon XI. And it’s a letter I’m very much looking forward to reading. “Time to make the chimi - f*cking - changas!”
BATMAN V SUPERMAN: DAWN OF JUSTICE (MARCH 25)
Domestic - $280M - $310M
Worldwide - $710M - $800M
I know, I know. “Dude, what are you smoking? BvS might even double that!” $1B for sure. Maybe even $2B. $200M+ opening weekend and so on.
I get that people are pumped for this movie but I hear projections like these and, (this is with all the respect I can possibly offer), it all sounds like wishful thinking.
The draw for this film is two of the biggest superheroes of all time together on the big screen for the first time. It sounds like some fans believe that will be enough to solidify BvS as a billion dollar baby. Well, wouldn’t that mean George Miller’s defunct Justice League: Mortal was a lock for a billion? That would’ve been the first time the whole league would be on the big screen.
As I mentioned in the opening, $1B is harder to reach than fans realize. A lot of boxes have to be checked for that to happen. In order to reach the numbers fans are throwing out, it has to appeal to a broad audience. But, judging by the trailers, the film looks geared towards a target audience. And if you listen to some fans, they insist DC movies are for “more mature audiences”. The kids can go watch Marvel movies. That’s fine. But don’t expect Jurassic World or The Force Awakens numbers with that approach.
Just as the Hunger Games drew young female viewers out in droves, BvS looks to be targeting males partial to “epic battles” and Zack Snyder’s style of filmmaking. And let’s face it, Snyder’s films (300, Watchmen, Sucker Punch) are testosterone on steroids.
And how about competition? Disney and Jon Favreau’s The Jungle Book is scheduled to open April 15, three weeks after BvS. Melissa McCarthy’s comedy The Boss opens a week prior to that on April 8 and My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 opens the same weekend as BvS. It’s easy to laugh at this but Hollywood has been utilizing counter-programming for years. And it’s worked. BvS is no doubt going to be loud, CGI heavy and geared towards male audiences so offering female audiences and families viable alternatives is smart. Women love going to the movies just as much as guys and they too often go overlooked. Parents will want to take their children to something their whole family will enjoy.
Is this to say Greek Wedding 2 will upset BvS? Unlikely. But it may take a big bite out of its opening weekend numbers. Will McCarthy dethrone BvS? Who knows. She’s come out ahead of the Man of Steel before. BvS may stay #1 April 8, but don’t be surprised if The Boss takes a huge chunk of that weekend at the #2 spot. I do see Jungle Book taking the top spot on the 15th.
But the biggest obstacle BvS has to overcome might be itself. The film is three months away and it’s already divided fans. Casting choices, story choices, Doomsday, Lex Jr. The truth is, the people most excited for BvS are Man of Steel fans. Warner already has their money. It’s the people who didn’t like Snyder’s take on Superman that they should be concerned with.
MoS fans can dismiss them as critics, detractors, or “haters”. Call them what you want, but BvS isn’t making $1B without them. The assumption is everyone is going to see it because it’s Batman and Superman on screen for the first time. More accurately, it’s a Batman the audience has no connection with, (coming only four years after the last franchise), and a Superman half the audience doesn’t approve of.
It’s the simple question of why would audiences pay to see a follow up to a film they didn’t even like?
Don’t get me wrong, I do see BvS making a bunch of money. It’ll probably set March records along the way. The “first time ever” novelty is definitely a draw but novelty wears off fast. It can translate to a big opening weekend but the film has to deliver, and not just on action like MoS did. If it delivers, I predict the numbers above. If it doesn’t, it’ll probably make MoS numbers, possibly a little more.
Then you can expect “Well just wait until Justice League opens. That’ll definitely break the $2B mark”.
CAPTAIN AMERICA: CIVIL WAR - (MAY 6)
Domestic $280 - $320M
Worldwide $750 - $850M
Is it May 6th yet? I’m not the least bit ashamed to admit this is number one on my list of CBMs to see. Anthony and Joe Russo did a phenomenal job with Captain America: The Winter Soldier and Civil War looks pretty darn good, too. I wasn’t expecting a direct adaptation of the comic, as Marvel doesn’t own the film rights to every player in the story, but what I’ve seen so far looks plausible.
Civil War will probably benefit from an Age of Ultron bump its opening weekend. Plus it’s the first blockbuster of the summer. Also, and this often gets overlooked, Marvel has built a relationship with the audience. They’ve built equity and trust. Otherwise, Guardians of the Galaxy and Ant-Man don’t see the light of day. This MCU has history and it’s playing a part in Civil War.
I see it topping $100M it’s opening weekend. Staying #1 the second weekend. After that the competition starts coming out. The follow up to the sleeper hit Neighbors opens May 20 - Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising. Also the Angry Birds movie. I see that weekend as a possible three way bout. Traditionally, movies that kick off the summer have to start fast and earn quickly before the rest of the tentpoles start hitting theaters and I see no exception here.
My gut says Civil War crosses $800M thanks to an emotional story, great action, appearances by Avenger members and the debuts of Black Panther and the new Spider-Man.
X-MEN: APOCALYPSE - (MAY 27)
Domestic $200 - $220M
Worldwide $650 - $700M
“I am the rocks of the eternal shore. Crash against me and be broken”.
Fifty points if you know where this comes from.
To be honest with you, I’m just not excited for this film. I’ve seen all the X-Films and neither of them struck a cord with me except for Matthew Vaughn’s X-Men: First Class. In my opinion, it’s the best of them all. It was a fresh start without really being a reboot and it was a great way to establish a new, immersive X-verse. I would’ve loved to have seen how Vaughn followed it up. I believe his take on Apocalypse should’ve followed First Class instead of Bryan Singer’s Days of Future Past. Oh well. What could’ve been.
Question - Did X-Men: Days of Future Past really "fix" the X-Men timeline?
Answer - It doesn’t matter.
Singer’s second film since returning to the director’s chair in the X-Men franchise is said to be the last in the First Class trilogy. It takes place in the 80s, presumably making a follow up, if any, set in the 90s. So what happens from Apocalypse and beyond really isn’t much of a concern as it pertains to X1, 2 and 3. So, was the “reset” even necessary?
What is a concern is X-Men: Apocalypse’s release date. If everything stays as is, the fourth superhero movie of the year will open against Disney’s Alice Through the Looking Glass - the follow up to the $1B Alice in Wonderland. It gets tougher after that. TMNT: Out of the Shadows opens the following week and WarCraft and The Conjuring 2: The Endfield Experiment are scheduled for June 3. In short, Apocalypse is going to have zero breathing room. And, like I mentioned, this will be the fourth superhero offering of the year. Remember what I said about counter programming?
The trailer was just okay to me. I didn’t see anything that showed how this installment will stand out from the other films. Part of the “underwhelmingness” is Apocalypse himself. I’m getting a Ronan the Accuser vibe from him, not the imposing force of nature the character truly is. Then again, it’s only the first trailer and we barely see much of him in it. The next trailer could paint an entirely different picture of him.
I don’t know if Fox claimed May 27th for X-Men: Apocalypse first and then other studios placed their films around it but this movie is in for a brutal run. With so much competition surrounding it, I see it grossing the numbers above.
SUICIDE SQUAD - (AUGUST 5)
Domestic $125 - $160M
Worldwide $420 - $500M
When Warner Bros. announced their slate of DC themed films, this one seemed like an odd choice. It still does. With so many iconic characters in its library, why go with such an obscure title to continue the launch of the DC Extended Universe? And with Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice opening earlier in March, wouldn’t the Wonder Woman movie make more sense in August, considering she would be hot off her big screen debut?
Like Deadpool in February, Suicide Squad feels like a movie for SS fans. Because, with the exception of the Joker and an appearance by Batman, general audiences have zero knowledge of the property and the members who make up the team. I would say, like Deadpool, the studio isn’t that interested in big box office returns for Squad and that this is a gift for die hard comic fans, but it’s Warner Bros.
They're building a universe and you don’t add Ben Affleck’s Batman and a superstar like Smith into the mix unless you’re looking to put a lot of butts in the seat. I’m not so sure the returns will be as plentiful as some expect.
In addition to general audiences not knowing about the concept, you’ve got the intense nature of the film to consider. Judging by the trailer, it does look dark (figuratively and literally) and intense. Jared Leto’s Joker feels more sadistic than past big screen incarnations. Squad will probably be PG-13 but a hard PG-13, with David Ayer pushing the rating as far as he’s allowed to. And that type of material rarely equals big box office.
Then there’s the August release date, a month where studios often dump their leftovers. Usually, because the summer movie season is coming to a close and audiences have, for the most part, seen what they’re going to see. Understandably, there have been comparisons to Guardians of the Galaxy. That was an unknown property opening in August, too. But Guardians was an aberration. There are a few things to keep in mind…
Marvel built an empire before taking the gamble on Guardians. No studio had ever released a comic book movie in August but the faith Marvel earned gave them the cache to do it. Since then we’ve had Fant4stic in August 2015 and Squad this year. Also, Guardians was charming, fun and a family film.
The August 5th release could work in Squad’s favor, though. At the time of writing this, there isn’t anything else set to open against it so it just might have the weekend to itself. Bourne 5 will be in its second week. But Disney’s live action Pete’s Dragon is scheduled for August 12 and that should pose some serious competition.
All in all, the only thing Suicide Squad’s performance will probably affect is Suicide Squad 2, if Warner even has plans for one. Because the studio is going forward with its DCEU regardless of how their first batch of films do.
GAMBIT - (OCTOBER 7)
Domestic $110 - $150M
Worldwide $350 - $410M
I don’t know about this one. Just as Ryan Reynolds was the driving force to get Deadpool made, Channing Tatum rallied to bring Gambit to the screen in his own movie. Only Deadpool is a far more interesting character and Reynolds a much more charismatic actor. I do admit, I haven’t seen many of Tatum’s movies. Last thing I saw him in was the G.I. Joe movies and…well…(shrugs).
I haven’t seen 21 or 22 Jump Street or the Magic Mike films or White House Down so he may have grown as an actor and is capable of pulling off a character as charming and lethal as the Cajun Remy LeBeau. I just may not be aware of it. I wouldn’t mind being pleasantly surprised at all.
Fox has already tried solo adventures for an X-Men character with Wolverine. He’s arguably much more popular a character than Gambit and Hugh Jackman is a better actor than Tatum so I can’t see Gambit doing that much better than any of the Wolverine films box office wise. Also, Wolverine had the benefit of starring in three X-Men movies prior to getting his own franchise so audiences worldwide were familiar with Jackman and the character.
Fox and Tatum are basically introducing a brand new, prospective franchise. I suppose early October would be as good a time to do it than any. I can see it costing on the lower end of $100M to produce as the primary special effects would be the kinetic energy from Remy’s cards. Director Doug Liman is great with practical stunts, having kicked off the Bourne franchise. He’s one of those rare directors who operates the camera himself. I’d love if Gambit showcased that type of action with a few CGI effects thrown in.
October 7 could benefit the film. Nothing stands out prior to or after that weekend. MGM and Antoine Fuqua’s The Magnificent Seven remake with Denzel Washington and Chris Pratt will be in its third weekend. The fifth Underworld movie comes out the week after Gambit.
I don’t see much risk involved with this one, unless Fox spends more than necessary to make it. It should bring in some nice spending money on top of what Deadpool and X-Men: Apocalypse gross. Also, at the very least, if Fox doesn’t go ahead with a sequel, the X-Universe has a new Remy LeBeau to make up for Taylor Kitsch’s.
DOCTOR STRANGE (NOVEMBER 4)
Domestic $165M - $210M
Worldwide $425M - $530M
Raise your hand if you geeked out a little when Jasper Sitwell name dropped Stephen Strange in Captain America: The Winter Soldier.
Although, as great as it was to hear his name, I’m disappointed it isn’t Carol Danvers who’s making her awaited leap to the big screen this November. Nothing against Strange, Benedict Cumberbatch, Chiwetel Ejiofor or Tilda Swinton (man, this cast is loaded) but 2016 could’ve been the year both Marvel and DC answered the call for female lead superhero movies. Just imagine Gal Gadot’s Wonder Woman in August and Captain Marvel in November. Alas, we don’t get Gadot until 2017 and Captain Marvel has been pushed back twice, currently scheduled for March 8, 2019.
But this is about Doctor Strange, perhaps as obscure a character as Ant-Man. One of the rumors is Strange is supposed to lead the new Avengers roster Phase 3 and beyond. Captain Marvel would make a better choice as leader for a number of reasons, in my opinion. (I promise, that’s the last time I’m going to mention her).
The advantage Strange has over Ant-Man is the cast. Cumberbatch, Ejiofor, Swinton and Mads Mikkelsen are seriously elite talents. Not just prestigious but international draws. My concern would be the use of magic. Will the film be effects driven like the Thor and Avengers franchises? I could easily see the movie's climax being a CGI fest where it’s tough to make out who’s doing what to who.
Marvel and company can probably look forward to “whitewashing” questions in their future with Swinton playing the Ancient One. It’s an older British woman playing a character who’s an older Asian man. Swinton is a powerful and versatile actress but Ken Watanabe or Chow Yun-Fat could’ve easily filled the role…freeing Swinton to play Madame Web in the rebooted Spider-Man franchise. :P
The gender+race swap topic might be a thing or it might not. (Some people could try to give them a pass just because it’s Marvel). I have a feeling though, that it will be, leading to a number of articles and discussions about minority/ethnic roles going to white actors. Just a feeling.
Strange will have two weeks to make its money before Warner Bros’ Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them opens November 18. After that it’ll be interesting to see what kind of legs Strange will have. I don’t have it lighting the box office on fire, as this is an introduction to a C-Level character, but numbers similar to Ant-Man wouldn’t be a surprise.
IN CONCLUSION
Like I said, it’s impossible to predict how much money a film will make. No one saw Guardians of the Galaxy coming. Or Jurassic World. Or Avatar, for that matter. You don’t find out until a movie opens and the audience expresses their feelings about it through box office performance.
I’ve always said, opening weekend tells you how anticipated the film is. Box office performance tells you how the audience feels about the film. Big opening, high anticipation. How long it stays in the top five or ten is a good indication if audiences connected with it.
I could be completely off with these projections. We’ll find out come the end of the year. If I am, I’ll eat my crow with a Caesar Salad and a bowl of tomato soup. Today, however, I stand behind these projections.
What do you guys think? How much do you see these movies making? Sound off below and, as always, thanks for reading!
Me waiting for these movies to get here.